Why experts lack wisdom …

Central Intelligence Agency

 The Paradox of Expertise

The strengths of expertise can also be weaknesses. Although one would expect experts to be good forecasters, they are not particularly good at making predictions about the future. 

Since the 1930s, researchers have been testing the ability of experts to make forecasts. The performance of experts has been tested against actuarial tables to determine if they are better at making predictions than simple statistical models. 

Seventy years later, with more than two hundred experiments in different domains, it is clear that the answer is NO.

If supplied with an equal amount of data about a particular case, an actuarial table is as good, or better, than an expert at making calls about the future. 

Even if an expert is given more specific case information than is available to the statistical model, the expert does not tend to outperform the actuarial table.

— Center for the Study of Intelligence

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