In the human mind, everything is a theory. And, there are two kinds of theories. True theories and false theories. So, as a thinker, how do you tell the difference between true theories and false theories?

Evidence. The balance of evidence.

Theories that are supported by the balance of evidence we call ‘true’. Theories that are not supported by the balance of evidence we call ‘false’.

In those cases where new research provides a shift in the balance of evidence away from one side and toward the other then the theory may shift from ‘true’ to ‘false’ or vice versa. For example, flat earth theories have shifted from true to false. Heliocentric theories have shifted from false to true. In cases like these, as a thinker, you may find a need to change your mind.

An example of a true theory supported by the balance of evidence is the Big Bang Theory which is increasingly supported by more and more evidence every year. An example of a false theory is the Theory of the Assumption of Mary which is is supported by less and less evidence every year.


When did you last change your mind based on the balance of evidence?

3 thoughts on “The Balance of Evidence

  1. To a thinker, a theory that is supported for advantage or fabrication should be a logical red-flag requiring studying more deeply to find out if there is an underlining motivation for honesty. Today, we have foundations, big businesses, governments, their agencies and institutions and all are providing us information for their own intentions.

    Many trials and testing are often dropped when it doesn’t meet certain expectations by backers. Results can be falsified or manipulated to continue to get funding. What’s important and should not be overlooked by thinkers is to first understand who is doing the funding and for what reason before accepting evidence to weigh and discern if a theory is true or false.

  2. Two months ago I completed an exercise to trick my voice of judgement as part of my masters in innovation – during the course of the exercise I realized that I could reconcile quite few things in my life by looking at seemingly trivial matters in my childhood. Although in my now adult eyes they were petty and trivial – to my child within they were hurtful and had affected the course of my life a lot to date ( I am 66 ). Now if you had told me two months ago that this would be the effect and because of doing it as result I am happier more content and more importantly can now think quicker and see clearer and have heaps of energy – I would have said you were nuts and needed help – boy is the laugh on me – such a pity I didn’t do it when I was younger.

  3. Just last week I was given a place of stay somewhere. I stand-up that I will not take it but later thought that better be there and change that situation and give up to the one who make the first move. Seeing smile on his cheeck tell me that I make a great change.

    I think that the truth to anything is always at the mid-point not at the extreme ends. thanks.

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