The Gallup Poll at Princeton has successfully predicted the outcome of US Presidential elections since the 1930s.
Although the outcome of the recent election was, itself, not a difficult prediction to call it was much more difficult to estimate the percentage of voter turnout in this election because it was so much different to the norm of around 50-55%.
55.2% 1972 Presidential – Nixon
53.6% 1976 Presidential – Carter
52.6% 1980 Presidential – Reagan
53.1% 1984 Presidential – Reagan
50.1% 1988 Presidential – Bush
55.1% 1992 Presidential – Clinton
49.1% 1996 Presidential – Clinton
51.3% 2000 Presidential – Bush
55.3% 2004 Presidential – Bush
-Â Source: New York Times
Using Gallup’s world-renowned scientific polling technique they predicted before the election that the US turnout would be 64%. The post-election result was 64.1%.
Not a bad call!
My mentor, Professor George Gallup, was acknowledged worldwide as one of the greatest leaders of change. George was also a wonderful American gentleman and a very nice man. He was 84 when he died at his place in Switzerland in 1984.
He was the inventor of the Gallup Poll at Princeton and the designer of market research. He was the first to map the Human Meme Pool. George Gallup’s great personal wisdom was supported by his long experience of measuring, in scientific detail, the opinions of more people around the world than anyone else in history.
In The Miracle Ahead he wrote that:
Change cannot be brought about easily by leaders, except in those situations in which the changes advocated do not disturb present relationships. In fact, it is the leaders who typically become the most bitter and the most effective foes of change. The public, therefore, must take the initiative and assume responsibility for progress in the affairs of man. The public must force change upon its leaders (who) command more respect today than perhaps they deserve… The leader is expert in his small world as it presently exists, not expert in the world as it might be. Although he plays an important role in modern society, it is not realistic to expect him to advocate change. This is the surest way for him to lose his status … The hope of the future rests with the citizen. To be effective, he must be well informed, and he must discover ways of making better use of his own great capacities and those of his fellow man. He cannot expect his leaders to give him much help in his upward march.